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  • I finished the Austin Rattler, can you predict my Leadville 100 Mountain Bike Race time?

    A rider finished the Austin Rattler a few weeks back and scored a spot at the prestigious Leadville 100 Mountain Bike Race. The rider asked what his time might be given a particular time at Austin.

    Good question.

    I sampled the 2013 Austin race and cross-referenced names to the Leadville 100 event. Below is the sample:

    Before I head into discussion, the disclaimer is I don't know any of the athletes in the list and I don't know what long list of variables affected each person's training or their races.

    That written, here are some interesting things to note:

    Ten of the 25 people finished Leadville with a multiplier (percent increase from Austin to Leadville) of less than two. That is, take their Austin time and multiply by between 1.77 and 1.94 to get a predicted Leadville finish.

    Two of the 25 did not finish at Leadville. Their Austin finish times were not necessarily predictors of a DNF. For example, only slow Austin finishers filed a DNF at Leadville. The preceding statement is not true.

    Thirteen people had multipliers between 2.0 and 2.42.

    The median value for the multiplier is 2.0 and the average (or arithmetic mean) is 1.9 – so the two numbers are quite close. (Sometimes when examining number ranges, the median and average values are not close.)

    My answer to the email question?

    Take your Austin Rattler time and double it to estimate your Leadville 100 time as a start. If all of your training is right-on and race day is perfect, it is possible to take your Rattler time and multiply it by 1.77 to predict a Leadville time. If your training and race day don't go well...it is possible, of course, to DNF.

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    • Jeff says...

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      I plan on doing the Rattler this year, Solo male 40-50 class, is it possible to tell me what you have to place to qualify for Leadville, or what time roughly do you need to qualify?

      Thank You
      Jeff

      On January 19, 2015

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